Diplomatic Interactions

Diplomatic Interactions

Ukraine Crisis 2022 and Iran-Russia Diplomatic Relations

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Ardeshir noorain 1
Morteza Ahmadi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student, Department of International Relations, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/dpiq.2025.540040.1049
Abstract
Introduction
The post-Cold War era saw Ukraine emerge as a focal point of rivalry between Russia and the West. Tensions escalated through pivotal events—the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, the Euromaidan protests (2014), Russia’s annexation of Crimea (2014), the Donbas conflict (2014–2021), the Minsk Agreements (2014–2015), and Ukraine’s NATO aspirations—culminating in Russia’s 2022 invasion and the ensuing global crisis.
Significance of the 2022 Ukraine Crisis:
Widely regarded as a watershed moment in international politics, reshaping great-power dynamics and their relations with secondary states, including Iran-Russia ties.
This study addresses:
Descriptive: *How has the 2022 Ukraine crisis impacted Iran-Russia relations? *
Explanatory: Why did these changes occur?
Theoretical Framework: Threat Balance Theory
Realism remains one of the most enduring theoretical traditions in International Relations, with roots tracing back to classical political thought. Despite critiques, its explanatory power persists—particularly in analyzing geopolitical crises like the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Within this tradition, Stephen Walt’s Threat Balance Theory (1987) offers a nuanced framework for understanding alliance formation, arguing that states balance against threats rather than mere power. 
Why Threat Balance Theory Fits This Study?
1. Multidimensionality: Unlike classical balance-of-power theories, Walt’s emphasis on intentions avoids reductionism.
2. Regional Focus: Walt’s work uniquely examines alliance dynamics in West/Southwest Asia, making it apt for analyzing Iran-Russia ties—a gap lesser-addressed by other realist scholars. 
3. Theoretical Resilience: As Schweller (1994: 78) notes, critics have yet to propose a *comprehensive alternative* to Walt’s framework, underscoring its utility in explaining adversarial alliances. 
Application to Iran-Russia Relations:
Iran’s Threat Perception: The West (especially the U.S.) is viewed as an existential threat due to:
Aggregate power (military dominance, sanctions).
Proximity (military presence in the Middle East).
Offensive intent (e.g., support for opposition groups, per Khamenei.ir).
The Ukraine crisis reinforced this anti-Western narrative, with Iranian leaders framing the conflict as a direct outcome of U.S. interference (Khamenei.ir, 2021).
Russia’s Threat Perception: Putin’s speeches (e.g., February 2022) depict NATO expansion as a strategic betrayal, justifying alignment with Iran to counter Western isolation.
Literature Review Abstract 
Existing scholarship on the 2022 Ukraine crisis has extensively explored its impacts on the international order, decision-making processes of key actors, and future scenarios, yet few studies have systematically examined its effects on Iran-Russia relations—a critical gap this research addresses. 
Key Findings from Prior Research:
1. Beznosova & Likhachev (2023): argue that post-2022, Iran-Russia ties strengthened due to Moscow’s reduced engagement with the West, mutual strategic needs, and shared sanctions. However, risks like losing Arab partners, escalating Western sanctions, and energy competition with China persist. 
2. Mahmoudian (2023): notes a shift from "asymmetric partnership" to "reciprocal cooperation," emphasizing Iran’s role as Russia’s primary drone supplier.
3. Eslami (2022): highlights deepened military collaboration, with Iran providing UAVs to offset Russia’s operational gaps, reflecting strategic alignment against Western influence.
4. Mossalanejad (2024): frames Iran as a "regional balancer," leveraging the crisis to enhance its geopolitical role through mediation and tactical alliances.
5. Kolaei & Zanganeh (2023): caution that Tehran’s engagement remains pragmatic, prioritizing its broader foreign policy goals over transformative ties with Moscow. 
Critical Gaps:
- Most studies overlook **non-military dimensions (e.g., space cooperation) and historical parallels in Iran-Russia relations. 
- Excessive focus on media-driven narratives (e.g., military aspects) at the expense of structural factors. 
This Study’s Novelty:
1. Employs a realist framework (Threat Balance Theory) to explain the rationale behind strengthened ties. 
2. Expands scope to understudied areas (e.g., space collaboration).
3. Integrates historical cases to contextualize behavioral patterns.
Methodology
This study adopts a qualitative approach with a descriptive-analytical methodology, utilizing content analysis for data collection through library-based documents and sources
Results
The findings reveal that the crisis has intensified both capitals’ perception of Western threats, paving the way for closer alignment and expanded cooperation across political, economic, international, spatial, and military domains. In the economic dimension, Russia's approach—similar to Britain's in the early 19th century—is to diversify economic relations and seek new markets. This is evidenced by the revival of the historic North-South Transport Corridor project, the strategic initiative to transfer natural gas to its traditional energy rival and joint efforts to counter unilateral coercive measures. As a result of the Ukraine crisis, Iran and Russia have upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, enhanced collaboration in space, and deepened military ties—creating a dynamic two-way street of mutual interests. Finally, bilateral cooperation between Iran and Russia on the international stage has strengthened, evidenced by Moscow’s consistent opposition to UN sanctions against Iran and its endorsement of Iran’s membership in new multilateral platforms like the SCO and BRICS.
Keywords
Iran-Russia diplomatic relations
balance of threats
North-South corridor
Security Council resolutions
Ukraine crisis 2022

Subjects

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