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    <title>Diplomatic Interactions</title>
    <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/</link>
    <description>Diplomatic Interactions</description>
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    <pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2025 00:00:00 +0330</pubDate>
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    <item>
      <title>Iran&amp;rsquo;s Diplomatic Discourse in the June 2025 Crisis: A Discursive Resistance Analysis Against Structural Inequality</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_240622.html</link>
      <description>Introduction&amp;amp;nbsp; &#13;
In contemporary international relations, diplomacy has transformed from a purely institutional practice into a dynamic discursive arena where power, meaning, and ideology intersect dialectically. This shift is especially pronounced for states like the Islamic Republic of Iran, which operates under sustained geopolitical pressure and seeks to construct an alternative, resistance-oriented foreign policy discourse. Following the military aggression by the Zionist regime against Iran in June 2025, Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, articulated a series of official statements, letters, speeches, and social media posts that constitute a strategic, multi-layered diplomatic response. This study seeks to analyze this discourse through Norman Fairclough&amp;amp;rsquo;s (2009) Dialectical-Relational Approach to Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), which treats discourse not merely as text but as a form of social practice embedded within&amp;amp;mdash;and actively reshaping&amp;amp;mdash;structures of power, ideology, and global inequality.&#13;
Research Objectives&#13;
Existing scholarship on Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s foreign policy has explored the notion of &amp;amp;ldquo;resistance discourse&amp;amp;rdquo; from historical, strategic, and ideological angles (Wu &amp;amp;amp; Moshirzadeh, 2025; Karemefard, 2025; Koohkan et al., 2020). However, most studies either adopt a macro-level theoretical stance or focus on the speeches of top leadership, overlooking the nuanced, crisis-driven articulation of diplomatic discourse by operational actors such as foreign ministers. A limited number of works have applied Fairclough&amp;amp;rsquo;s CDA to Iranian diplomatic texts (e.g., Rahimi Tehrani &amp;amp;amp; Chalak, 2021; Asadi, 2014), but none have examined a full corpus of texts produced in direct response to a military attack. Moreover, prior research often neglects the triadic interplay between textual strategies, discursive practices (e.g., multi-channel dissemination), and the sociopolitical context of global hegemony&amp;amp;mdash;precisely the gap this study addresses.&#13;
Methodology&amp;amp;nbsp; &#13;
This research employs a qualitative design grounded in Fairclough&amp;amp;rsquo;s (2009) three-dimensional CDA framework: (1) textual analysis, (2) discourse practice, and (3) sociocultural practice. The data consist of 14 publicly available texts issued by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi between June 13 and 21, 2025, including formal letters to the UN Security Council and the IAEA, official statements, diplomatic speeches, and posts on the X (formerly Twitter) platform. Data were collected through document analysis and coded using NVivo 14 software. The analytical process followed three stages: open coding (identifying surface themes), axial coding (grouping codes into conceptual categories), and selective coding (extracting core discursive strategies). Trustworthiness was ensured through peer debriefing, dual coding by independent researchers, and thick description of contextual nuances.&#13;
Results&amp;amp;nbsp; &#13;
The analysis reveals four core thematic clusters that structure Araqchi&amp;amp;rsquo;s discourse: (1) legitimate self-defense, anchored in Article 51 of the UN Charter and the NPT; (2) illegal aggression, framed as a &amp;amp;ldquo;heinous violation&amp;amp;rdquo; of international law and a &amp;amp;ldquo;crime against humanity&amp;amp;rdquo;; (3) destroyed diplomacy, emphasizing that Iran was engaged in negotiations (e.g., Muscat talks) when the attack occurred; and (4) Western hypocrisy and injustice, highlighting the structural double standards of Western powers and international institutions. Linguistically, the discourse combines formal legal terminology with moral metaphors (&amp;amp;ldquo;diplomacy was destroyed,&amp;amp;rdquo; &amp;amp;ldquo;shameful silence&amp;amp;rdquo;) and binary oppositions (&amp;amp;ldquo;us/them,&amp;amp;rdquo; &amp;amp;ldquo;victim/aggressor,&amp;amp;rdquo; &amp;amp;ldquo;justice/hypocrisy&amp;amp;rdquo;). Strategically, texts were disseminated through both formal channels (UN, IAEA) and digital platforms (X) to simultaneously target international institutions, global public opinion&amp;amp;mdash;particularly the Islamic world&amp;amp;mdash;and domestic audiences. Reception analysis indicates strong solidarity from Muslim-majority states, muted responses from Western governments, and procedural inaction by international bodies.&#13;
Discussion&amp;amp;nbsp; &#13;
Araqchi&amp;amp;rsquo;s discourse functions not merely as a reactive justification but as an intentional act of resistance discourse aimed at challenging the hegemonic Western narrative that delegitimizes non-Western sovereignty. By invoking universally recognized legal norms while exposing their selective enforcement, Iran repositions itself from a &amp;amp;ldquo;threat&amp;amp;rdquo; to a &amp;amp;ldquo;victim of illegal aggression,&amp;amp;rdquo; thereby subverting the dominant security discourse. The use of digital diplomacy (e.g., X posts) alongside traditional channels reflects a hybrid strategy that bypasses Western-controlled media and appeals directly to transnational publics. This approach aligns with Fairclough&amp;amp;rsquo;s view of discourse as both shaped by and shaping social structures: even as Iran operates within an unequal international order, it leverages language to carve out discursive space for justice, resistance, and alternative legitimacy. However, the actual efficacy of this discourse remains constrained by structural power imbalances&amp;amp;mdash;Western media and institutions largely marginalized or reframed Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s narrative.&#13;
Conclusion&amp;amp;nbsp; &#13;
This study demonstrates that Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s diplomatic discourse in the aftermath of military aggression constitutes a sophisticated, multi-dimensional strategy of discursive resistance. It simultaneously legitimizes defensive action, delegitimizes the aggressor, exposes systemic double standards, and constructs an alternative geopolitical imaginary centered on justice and South-South solidarity. While the discourse may not immediately transform material power relations, it performs a crucial symbolic function: asserting moral agency in a world where the &amp;amp;ldquo;right to speak&amp;amp;rdquo; is as contested as the &amp;amp;ldquo;right to defend.&amp;amp;rdquo; Future research should examine audience reception more systematically and compare Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s discursive strategies with those of other Global South actors facing similar asymmetries.</description>
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    <item>
      <title>A Comparative Study of the "National Sports" Branding Diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Qatar Over the Last Two Decades: Emphasizing the Brady Method</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_239023.html</link>
      <description>IntroductionNational sports branding refers to the use of a country's sporting capabilities to build and strengthen national identity and improve that country's international image. In today's world, sports branding is a key tool for global competition. This study aims to make a comparative comparison of national sports branding in Iran and one of the Persian Gulf countries, "Qatar, which has had achievements in this field. This research was conducted using a comparative method, and the data collection method was library-based, using existing scientific documents. The theoretical framework of this research is based on Simon Anholt's national branding. The research findings show that Qatar has performed more successfully than the Islamic Republic of Iran in the dimensions of governance, investment, tourism, and sports exports. In contrast, despite having outstanding cultural and historical capacities, Iran has not been able to effectively utilize these capacities in the direction of national sports branding due to the lack of coherent policymaking and weakness in sports governance.Research MethodThe research method of this study is based on a comparative approach. In this method, data are analyzed in four steps, including description, interpretation, juxtaposition, and comparison. The main framework of the research is based on the comparative study model presented by George Brady (1990). A comparative study is a widely used method in social sciences that systematically compares different countries or cultures. This method is highly flexible and can be implemented qualitatively or quantitatively. Its main goal is to gain a deeper understanding of phenomena through comparison and analysis of similarities and differences. The benefits of this approach include identifying causal relationships, improving analysis accuracy, fostering cross-cultural understanding, and advancing theoretical knowledge.Conclusion The country of Qatar has performed much more successfully than the Islamic Republic of Iran in the six dimensions of national sports branding, especially in the four main axes including governance, investment, sports tourism, and export of sports services and products.Research findings in the governance component show that Qatar has strengthened its global position in sports through integrated policymaking, large investments, and targeted sports diplomacy, while Iran has lagged behind in this area due to a lack of policy coherence, weakness in branding, and failure to utilize international capacities. Based on the data of the present study, in the dimension of investment and sports migration, Qatar has built an international position for itself with large investments and active sports diplomacy. In contrast, Iran has failed to attract foreign capital due to sanctions and the lack of integrated policymaking and has focused on domestic marketing. Based on data analysis, with regard to the sports tourism component, Qatar, by combining modern infrastructure and sports diplomacy, has turned tourism into a driving force for the economy and national branding. While Iran, despite its rich potential, has not been able to gain a significant share of the global sports tourism industry due to the lack of efficient infrastructure and coherent planning. And also, in comparing the two countries in the sports export component, Qatar, by implementing a strategic plan and making large investments, has turned "sports" into a tool for soft power and economic development. While Iran, despite having inherent capacities, has remained on the margins of the global sports economy due to a lack of strategic vision and structural obstacles and has failed to transform its potential into international capital and reputation. In the cultural and people component, Qatar, with a strategic vision, has turned sports into a weapon for acquiring soft power and economic transformation, while Iran, relying on its cultural treasure and human capacities, uses sports in the service of social cohesion and the reproduction of national identity. This strategic confrontation has created a fundamental difference in the sporting goals and achievements of the two countries. Meanwhile, although Iran has significant capacities in the two dimensions of people and culture and even enjoys relative superiority compared to Qatar, the lack of strategic planning, weakness in sports governance institutions, and lack of coherence between the responsible institutions have prevented the effective use of these capacities. Considering the results of the present study, which indicate that Qatar performs more successfully in the dimensions of governance, investment, tourism, and sports exports compared to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and also considering Iran's leadership in cultural and popular dimensions, it is necessary to formulate a set of policy recommendations to provide an optimal path for promoting Iran's national sports brand.</description>
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    <item>
      <title>EU Climate Diplomacy and the Redefinition of Global Trade Relations: The Impact of Climate Policies on Trade Relations with China</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_241792.html</link>
      <description>Problem Statement and Background&#13;
Climate change has evolved from a primarily environmental concern into a central issue shaping global politics, international trade, and the dynamics of globalization. In this context, the European Union (EU) has emerged as one of the most proactive actors in climate governance, positioning itself not only as a leader in environmental regulation but also as a regulatory power capable of influencing global economic structures. In recent years, EU climate policies have increasingly intersected with trade policy, transforming climate diplomacy into a strategic tool for redefining the rules of international economic interaction.&#13;
Within the framework of globalization, these developments reflect a broader shift toward new forms of interdependence, in which environmental standards are progressively embedded in the infrastructure of global trade. Instruments such as the European Green Deal and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) exemplify this shift by linking market access to climate performance and internalizing environmental costs into international economic exchanges. While these measures are justified by the EU as necessary for preventing carbon leakage and ensuring fair competition, they have generated significant tensions with major trading partners, particularly emerging economies such as China.&#13;
Despite the growing importance of EU climate diplomacy and its implications for global trade, the existing literature has largely treated climate policy and trade policy as separate domains. Many studies focus either on the EU&amp;amp;rsquo;s role in international climate negotiations or on the trade-related impacts of environmental regulation, without sufficiently integrating these perspectives within a unified analytical framework. As a result, there remains a significant research gap concerning the ways in which EU climate diplomacy, embedded in the broader process of globalization, reshapes bilateral trade relations with key partners and contributes to the reconfiguration of the global trade order.&#13;
Research Objectives&#13;
The primary objective of this study is to examine how the European Union&amp;amp;rsquo;s climate diplomacy, within the context of globalization, affects its trade relations with China. The article seeks to demonstrate that EU climate policies are not merely environmental measures but constitute a form of structural power that influences global trade patterns, regulatory norms, and competitive dynamics. Specifically, the research aims to analyze the legal, economic, and political implications of key EU climate instruments&amp;amp;mdash;most notably the European Green Deal and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism&amp;amp;mdash;on EU&amp;amp;ndash;China trade relations.&#13;
In doing so, the study also aims to contribute to the broader theoretical debate on globalization by illustrating how climate policy has become a mechanism for selective globalization, in which economic integration is preserved but increasingly conditioned by environmental and regulatory standards. By focusing on the EU&amp;amp;ndash;China relationship, the research highlights the interaction between climate governance, trade competition, and power redistribution in the emerging low-carbon global order.&#13;
Research Methodology&#13;
The study adopts a qualitative research approach based on documentary and content analysis. Primary data are drawn from official EU policy documents, legal texts, strategy papers, and communications related to climate and trade policy, including European Council conclusions and European Commission initiatives. These are complemented by secondary sources from peer-reviewed academic literature on climate governance, globalization, and international trade.&#13;
The analysis is guided by a globalization-based conceptual framework, emphasizing structural power, regulatory influence, and interdependence. Through qualitative content analysis, the study examines how EU climate diplomacy is institutionalized, how it is linked to trade instruments, and how these developments affect China as a major trading partner and global emitter. This methodological approach allows for an in-depth understanding of the political and regulatory logic underlying EU climate diplomacy and its broader implications for global trade governance.&#13;
Research Findings&#13;
The findings of the study indicate that EU climate diplomacy has evolved into a comprehensive and cross-sectoral strategy that extends well beyond environmental policy. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the EU has increasingly integrated climate objectives into its trade policy, foreign relations, and economic governance. The European Green Deal represents a turning point in this process, redefining all EU policies in light of the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 and positioning climate action as a core element of the Union&amp;amp;rsquo;s external economic strategy.&#13;
One of the most significant findings is that instruments such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism function as tools of structural and normative power. By conditioning access to the EU market on carbon pricing and emissions standards, the EU effectively exports its regulatory framework beyond its borders. This has direct consequences for China, which is the largest exporter of several carbon-intensive products to the EU. CBAM increases the cost of Chinese exports in sectors such as steel, aluminum, and cement, thereby affecting trade flows and competitiveness.&#13;
At the same time, the study finds that EU climate diplomacy has generated a complex pattern of cooperation and competition with China. While both actors share an interest in maintaining multilateral climate governance and have cooperated in international climate forums, EU unilateral measures have been perceived by China as forms of green protectionism and regulatory imperialism. China has criticized CBAM as inconsistent with the principles of the Paris Agreement and the World Trade Organization, particularly the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.&#13;
However, the findings also suggest that EU climate pressure has acted as an external catalyst for domestic policy adjustments in China. In response to EU measures, China has accelerated the development of its national emissions trading system and reinforced its long-term climate commitments. This indicates that EU climate diplomacy not only generates conflict but also contributes to policy diffusion and regulatory convergence, albeit in a contested and selective manner.&#13;
Conclusion&#13;
The study concludes that EU climate diplomacy should be understood as a central component of a broader strategy to reshape the global trade system in the context of globalization. Rather than signaling a retreat from globalization, EU climate policies contribute to the emergence of a form of selective globalization, in which economic integration is maintained but increasingly governed by stringent environmental and regulatory conditions. Through its regulatory capacity and market power, the EU has transformed climate policy into a source of structural influence over global trade relations.&#13;
In the case of EU&amp;amp;ndash;China relations, this transformation has resulted in a dynamic characterized by competitive coexistence. Climate diplomacy has become both a field of cooperation and a source of tension, reflecting deeper struggles over rule-making authority, competitiveness, and responsibility in the global low-carbon transition. The findings underscore that climate policy is no longer a peripheral issue but a key arena in which the future of global trade governance is being negotiated.&#13;
Ultimately, the article highlights the need to analyze climate diplomacy, trade policy, and globalization as interconnected processes. Ignoring these linkages risks producing an incomplete understanding of contemporary global political economy. The study therefore contributes to the literature by offering an integrated framework for understanding how EU climate diplomacy reshapes trade relations and power structures in the evolving global order.</description>
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    <item>
      <title>Ukraine Crisis 2022 and Iran-Russia Diplomatic Relations</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_236403.html</link>
      <description>Introduction The post-Cold War era saw Ukraine emerge as a focal point of rivalry between Russia and the West. Tensions escalated through pivotal events&amp;amp;mdash;the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, the Euromaidan protests (2014), Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s annexation of Crimea (2014), the Donbas conflict (2014&amp;amp;ndash;2021), the Minsk Agreements (2014&amp;amp;ndash;2015), and Ukraine&amp;amp;rsquo;s NATO aspirations&amp;amp;mdash;culminating in Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s 2022 invasion and the ensuing global crisis.Significance of the 2022 Ukraine Crisis:Widely regarded as a watershed moment in international politics, reshaping great-power dynamics and their relations with secondary states, including Iran-Russia ties.This study addresses:Descriptive: *How has the 2022 Ukraine crisis impacted Iran-Russia relations? *Explanatory: Why did these changes occur?Theoretical Framework: Threat Balance Theory Realism remains one of the most enduring theoretical traditions in International Relations, with roots tracing back to classical political thought. Despite critiques, its explanatory power persists&amp;amp;mdash;particularly in analyzing geopolitical crises like the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Within this tradition, Stephen Walt&amp;amp;rsquo;s Threat Balance Theory (1987) offers a nuanced framework for understanding alliance formation, arguing that states balance against threats rather than mere power.&amp;amp;nbsp; Why Threat Balance Theory Fits This Study? 1. Multidimensionality: Unlike classical balance-of-power theories, Walt&amp;amp;rsquo;s emphasis on intentions avoids reductionism. 2. Regional Focus: Walt&amp;amp;rsquo;s work uniquely examines alliance dynamics in West/Southwest Asia, making it apt for analyzing Iran-Russia ties&amp;amp;mdash;a gap lesser-addressed by other realist scholars.&amp;amp;nbsp; 3. Theoretical Resilience: As Schweller (1994: 78) notes, critics have yet to propose a *comprehensive alternative* to Walt&amp;amp;rsquo;s framework, underscoring its utility in explaining adversarial alliances.&amp;amp;nbsp; Application to Iran-Russia Relations:Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s Threat Perception: The West (especially the U.S.) is viewed as an existential threat due to:Aggregate power (military dominance, sanctions).Proximity (military presence in the Middle East).Offensive intent (e.g., support for opposition groups, per Khamenei.ir).The Ukraine crisis reinforced this anti-Western narrative, with Iranian leaders framing the conflict as a direct outcome of U.S. interference (Khamenei.ir, 2021).Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s Threat Perception: Putin&amp;amp;rsquo;s speeches (e.g., February 2022) depict NATO expansion as a strategic betrayal, justifying alignment with Iran to counter Western isolation.Literature Review Abstract&amp;amp;nbsp; Existing scholarship on the 2022 Ukraine crisis has extensively explored its impacts on the international order, decision-making processes of key actors, and future scenarios, yet few studies have systematically examined its effects on Iran-Russia relations&amp;amp;mdash;a critical gap this research addresses.&amp;amp;nbsp; Key Findings from Prior Research: 1. Beznosova &amp;amp;amp; Likhachev (2023): argue that post-2022, Iran-Russia ties strengthened due to Moscow&amp;amp;rsquo;s reduced engagement with the West, mutual strategic needs, and shared sanctions. However, risks like losing Arab partners, escalating Western sanctions, and energy competition with China persist.&amp;amp;nbsp; 2. Mahmoudian (2023): notes a shift from "asymmetric partnership" to "reciprocal cooperation," emphasizing Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s role as Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s primary drone supplier. 3. Eslami (2022): highlights deepened military collaboration, with Iran providing UAVs to offset Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s operational gaps, reflecting strategic alignment against Western influence. 4. Mossalanejad (2024): frames Iran as a "regional balancer," leveraging the crisis to enhance its geopolitical role through mediation and tactical alliances. 5. Kolaei &amp;amp;amp; Zanganeh (2023): caution that Tehran&amp;amp;rsquo;s engagement remains pragmatic, prioritizing its broader foreign policy goals over transformative ties with Moscow.&amp;amp;nbsp; Critical Gaps: - Most studies overlook **non-military dimensions (e.g., space cooperation) and historical parallels in Iran-Russia relations.&amp;amp;nbsp; - Excessive focus on media-driven narratives (e.g., military aspects) at the expense of structural factors.&amp;amp;nbsp; This Study&amp;amp;rsquo;s Novelty: 1. Employs a realist framework (Threat Balance Theory) to explain the rationale behind strengthened ties.&amp;amp;nbsp; 2. Expands scope to understudied areas (e.g., space collaboration). 3. Integrates historical cases to contextualize behavioral patterns.MethodologyThis study adopts a qualitative approach with a descriptive-analytical methodology, utilizing content analysis for data collection through library-based documents and sourcesResultsThe findings reveal that the crisis has intensified both capitals&amp;amp;rsquo; perception of Western threats, paving the way for closer alignment and expanded cooperation across political, economic, international, spatial, and military domains. In the economic dimension, Russia's approach&amp;amp;mdash;similar to Britain's in the early 19th century&amp;amp;mdash;is to diversify economic relations and seek new markets. This is evidenced by the revival of the historic North-South Transport Corridor project, the strategic initiative to transfer natural gas to its traditional energy rival and joint efforts to counter unilateral coercive measures. As a result of the Ukraine crisis, Iran and Russia have upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, enhanced collaboration in space, and deepened military ties&amp;amp;mdash;creating a dynamic two-way street of mutual interests. Finally, bilateral cooperation between Iran and Russia on the international stage has strengthened, evidenced by Moscow&amp;amp;rsquo;s consistent opposition to UN sanctions against Iran and its endorsement of Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s membership in new multilateral platforms like the SCO and BRICS.</description>
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      <title>Future Studies of the Regional Security Order in West Asia in the Diplomatic Context after the Abraham Accords: A Study Based on Peter Schwartz's Method</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_236404.html</link>
      <description>Introduction&#13;
The West Asian region has been undergoing complex and extensive political and geopolitical changes over the past decades. The agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with the Zionist regime in 2020, which was formed with the mediation of the United States and became known as the &amp;amp;ldquo;Abraham Accords, once again challenged the order of this region. This agreement was a treaty to establish peace, establish diplomatic relations, and fully normalize relations between these countries, which were later joined by Sudan and Morocco. This was while Egypt and Jordan had also established relations with the Zionist regime in 1979 and 1994. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the end of the self-proclaimed ISIS government in Syria and Iraq, the strengthening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and resistance groups in Palestine, the possibility of an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the agreement reached between Iran and Saudi Arabia and, consequently, some of the countries on the Persian Gulf, the implementation of Operation Storm Al-Aqsa and the events that followed, as well as the possibility of an agreement between Iran and Egypt, the possibility of the collapse of the Sykes-Picot order has strengthened and once again pushes this region towards change and transformation. The main question of this research is: What will the future of the West Asian regional order be like after the conclusion of the Abraham Accords?&#13;
Methodology&#13;
This research is conducted using the futures research method based on Peter Schwartz's scenario writing. This method has various stages that are mentioned below and explained. First stage: Identifying the main topic of the scenario. Possible scenarios are scenarios that are more likely to be realized and occur. Accordingly, scenarios can be divided into five formats: 1- Continuation of the status quo (current situation) 2- Good future (improving the current situation) 3- Bad future (worsening the current situation) 4- Catastrophic future (unimaginably bad situation) 5- Miraculous future (unimaginably good situation). Second stage: Identifying key factors for each scenario and weighting them. Third stage: Identifying driving forces. Driving forces are issues that can affect key factors and make the speed of an event faster or slower than real time. Fourth stage: Determining the level of uncertainty of key factors. Determining the uncertainty of drivers and prioritizing key factors prevent an excessive number of scenarios. Step Five: Identifying and determining the logic of the scenario. For a scenario, an impact and effectiveness matrix of the driving forces should be prepared for the number of driving forces (all key factors). The extent of these impacts is divided into five states: very strong (4), strong (3), medium (2), weak (1), and ineffective (0). Step Six: Scenario Writing. And Step Seven: Reviewing and prioritizing scenarios.&#13;
Results&#13;
According to the survey data, the main driving forces affecting the security order in West Asia after the Abraham Accords are:&#13;
1. Security-military factors:&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; The possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons (81.4% of respondents assessed the possibility of changing the balance of power as &amp;amp;ldquo;high&amp;amp;rdquo; or &amp;amp;ldquo;very high&amp;amp;rdquo;).&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; The security policies of the Zionist regime (65.7% of respondents assessed the possibility of changing the balance of power as &amp;amp;ldquo;high&amp;amp;rdquo; or &amp;amp;ldquo;very high&amp;amp;rdquo;).&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; Operation Storm al-Aqsa and the assassination of key figures (47.3% probability of high impact).&#13;
2. Economic factors:&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; Development of trade corridors such as AIMAC (33.3% probability of medium impact on Iran&amp;amp;rsquo;s position)&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; Economic cooperation between the Persian Gulf countries and Israel (59.8% probability of extensive cooperation).&#13;
3. Political-diplomatic factors:&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; Political-diplomatic agreements between the Arab countries and Israel (66.7% probability of increasing Iran's isolation).&#13;
&amp;amp;bull; Intervention by extra-regional powers (USA: 74.1% high impact, China and Russia: 46.7% medium impact).&#13;
Discussion&#13;
The analysis of the data obtained from the questionnaire and their processing based on the DEMATEL method shows that the emerging security order in the West Asian region has a networked and asymmetrical structure. In this structure, some factors are located in the central and driving range, while others are more in the position of consequential or affected factors. The first and most important analytical finding is the prominence of the role of the factor of strengthening military-security cooperation between the Zionist regime and the Arab states (F2). This factor, with the highest net impact and overall importance, is in first place in all DEMATEL indicators. The aforementioned characteristics introduce this factor as a factor that can strongly affect the balance of power, the pattern of alliances, and the security orientation of the countries in the region.&#13;
On the other hand, factors such as the development of joint trade-economic relations (F3) and the strengthening of the resistance front (F4) play a less direct role and are more subject to macro-security developments and the decisions of key players. The position of these factors in the lower part of the causal scatter diagram confirms their consequential and reactive nature.&#13;
It is noteworthy that some intermediate factors such as the creation of an anti-Iranian economic bloc (F5) and the formation of new political-diplomatic relations in the region (F6) have a net role close to zero but a high overall importance. This situation shows that these factors are both affected and have the ability to influence. Therefore, they can be considered structural intermediaries or two-way factors whose position can change depending on the strategic orientation of the countries.&#13;
Conclusion&#13;
Based on the available evidence and the findings of this study, the future of the security order in the West Asian region is not moving towards stability and convergence, but towards structural divergence, long-term de-insecurity, and intensified competition between powers in order to establish their desired order. The examination of the driving forces of crisis and patterns of power blocs in the Middle East region shows that the possibility of a fundamental change in the security order of this region and the transition to a new order is not realistic, at least in the short term. Among the conceivable scenarios, the most likely and realistic path forward is the continuation of the status quo.</description>
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      <title>Beyond the playing field: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Diplomacy sport</title>
      <link>https://www.dpiq.ir/article_241789.html</link>
      <description>IntroductionThe interaction between international political developments and sporting events is an integral part of global politics. However, Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has created a unique precedent in terms of the scale and nature of sporting sanctions. The present research seeks to answer the question: How has the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war affected the relations of global sport and altered the approach of international institutions? In response, the hypothesis is posited that the war, by challenging the principle of political neutrality, has transformed global sport into an arena for geopolitical conflict through the weaponization of sanctions (including team bans, athlete exclusions, and economic boycotts).The research method is qualitative, utilizing Thematic Analysis. Data were collected via library research and analyzed through a three-stage coding process (open, axial, and selective). The findings indicate that the sanctions targeted Russia's sports structure through three mechanisms: "financial decoupling" (economic shock), "brain drain" (migration of athletes), and "geopolitical isolation." The study concludes that the transition from "sport as a peace-builder" to "sport as a sanctioning tool" poses a strategic warning for other independent nations, including Iran.The sanctions regime extended beyond traditional political and economic spheres to comprehensively target Russian sport. This resulted in the isolation and deprivation of the Russian sports establishment, reversing years of developmental progress. Crucially, the punitive measures were multifaceted, encompassing national representation, individual athletes, and commercial interests.Research ObjectiveThe overarching objective of this research is to systematically identify and analyze the principal repercussions of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the corresponding international sanctions on the structure and functioning of global sport. The inquiry is fundamentally guided by the following central research question:What are the most significant effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global sport, and through which mechanisms have these impacts manifested within the international political system?.In response to this question, this study posits a specific hypothesis is grounded in the immediate and comprehensive nature of the international response:The primary effects of the conflict between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Ukraine on global sport are threefold: (1) the prohibition of national sports teams from participating in international events; (2) the systematic exclusion of Russian athletes from major competitions, including the Olympics; and (3) the imposition of significant pressure and restrictions on Russian-owned commercial entities, clubs, and influential sports figures in the international sports market.By investigating this hypothesis, the research aims to contribute to the specialized literature of International Relations, particularly in the subfield of Sport Diplomacy and soft power studies, by providing a detailed, contemporary case study of how geopolitics directly overrides the purported political neutrality of international sporting bodies.Research MethodologyThe research presented in this article adopts a Descriptive-Analytical (Descriptive-Analytical) methodological framework. This approach is specifically chosen to first describe the scope and nature of the sanctions and political developments that have impacted Russian sport, and subsequently to analyze the underlying political and geopolitical dynamics that explain these outcomes.The core of the Data Collection process relies on documentary analysis and archival research, utilizing both traditional library resources and extensive external sources. The evidence base includes a comprehensive review of official statements and resolutions issued by international sport governing bodies (e.g., IOC, FIFA, international federations), governmental pronouncements from relevant states, and reports and analyses published by reputable international media and specialized academic sources on sport and politics. Presentation of Research FindingsThe analysis of data unequivocally supports the proposed hypothesis, demonstrating that the geopolitical fallout from the 2022 conflict initiated an unprecedented and comprehensive campaign of sanctions that profoundly reshaped the landscape of global sport and Russian engagement within it. The findings reveal the multifaceted mechanisms through which these sanctions were implemented, resulting in the acute isolation of the Russian Federation on the world stage.1.The Ban and Exclusion of Russian Teams and Athletes:2. A cornerstone of the international response was the near-total expulsion of Russian national and club teams from global competitions. Acting swiftly, international federations such as FIFA and UEFA jointly suspended all Russian football teams from their competitions. Concurrently, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) issued a firm recommendation on February 28, 2022, advising its members to refrain from inviting or allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials to participate in events. This led to the widespread cancellation or relocation of all sporting events scheduled to take place on Russian soil, including the UEFA Champions League final in St. Petersburg. Moreover, Russian athletes were either outright banned or permitted to compete only under a strict 'neutral' designation, stripped of all national symbols, including the flag and anthem. This symbolic removal from the international competitive arena constituted a direct assault on Russia&amp;amp;rsquo;s ability to project national identity and pride through global sport.2. The Targeting of Russian Sports Commerce and Ownership: The sanctions extended deeply into the commercial fabric of global sport. Russian companies, such as the state-owned energy giant Gazprom, faced cutbacks in their international sponsorship deals, including those with major European clubs like Schalke 04 and prestigious events like the UEFA Champions League. This systematic targeting of financial backers crippled a critical channel of Russian soft power projection and influence in key Western European states, notably Germany. The forced sale or divestment of high-profile assets, exemplified by Roman Abramovich&amp;amp;rsquo;s forced sale of Chelsea FC, demonstrated the direct application of geopolitical pressure against wealthy Russian individuals and their commercial holdings in the sports sector.3. Geopolitical and Soft Power Implications: The widespread sanctions have had profound consequences for Russia's geopolitical standing and its soft power capacity. Sport has long been a powerful instrument for Russia to showcase its global relevance, attract positive attention, and cultivate cultural influence. The current isolation effectively neutralizes this tool, significantly weakening the country&amp;amp;rsquo;s ability to affect global public opinion. The sanctions also explicitly challenged the established principle of "sports neutrality," forcing international governing bodies&amp;amp;mdash;ostensibly non-political&amp;amp;mdash;to align explicitly with a geopolitical bloc and use their authority as a form of non-military engagement against Russia. Furthermore, the professional careers of elite Russian athletes have been severely disrupted, leading to a talent drain as many champions, particularly in fields like wrestling, chose to compete for other nations to sustain their athletic careers, further damaging the country&amp;amp;rsquo;s foundation of competitive sport. ConclusionThe evidence presented confirms the research hypothesis: the primary impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global sport manifest as the systematic prohibition of Russian teams, the exclusion and symbolic stripping of Russian athletes, and the commercial targeting of Russian sports ownership and sponsorship. These measures, unprecedented in their breadth, have effectively resulted in the acute isolation of Russia from the international sports community, leading to a significant degradation of its diplomatic capabilities and soft power projection.The geopolitical confrontation has fundamentally exposed and, arguably, debunked the myth of apolitical international sport, forcing a reckoning regarding the role of non-state sports organizations as actors within the international security framework. Moving forward, the future status of Russia in global sport is inextricably linked to the ongoing trajectory of the war and the evolving geopolitical alignments sport.</description>
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