تعاملات دیپلماتیک

تعاملات دیپلماتیک

دیپلماسی اقتصادی ایران و چین: ظرفیت‌ها و موانع همکاری در حوزه انرژی، با نگاهی به نظریه وابستگی متقابل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار روابط بین الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی, تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل (مطالعات خاورمیانه) دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی تهران، ایران.
چکیده
چین به عنوان یکی از قدرتمندترین اقتصادهای جهان، نیازمند منابع انرژی پایدار و مطمئن است و برای توسعه بخشیدن به اقتصاد خود نمی‌تواند از نفت و گاز غرب آسیا چشم‌پوشی کند. ایران نیز به عنوان کشوری غنی از منابع طبیعی و درگیر تحریم‌ها، نیازمند جذب سرمایه‌گذاری و به‌روزرسانی زیرساخت‌ها در زمینه انرژی است. به همین جهت، دیپلماسی اقتصادی هر دو کشور اقتضا می‌کند همکاری‌های فی‌مابین بر اساس نیازهای متقابل و منافع مشترک شکل بگیرد. این همکاری‌ها در حوزه انرژی، با چالش‌هایی از جمله ممانعت ورزی هژمونی غرب در منطقه خاورمیانه مواجه است. سؤال اصلی پژوهش عبارت از این است که چگونه دیپلماسی اقتصادی ایران و چین در حوزه انرژی می‌تواند به الگوهای جدیدی از فرصت‌ها و همکاری‌های دو کشور جهت توسعه پایدار و امنیت انرژی در مقابل هژمونی غرب در خاورمیانه کمک کند؟ یافته پژوهش حاکی از ان است که ایجاد شبکه‌های انرژی فرا منطقه‌ای (مانند کریدورهای انتقال نفت و گاز، سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌های پالایشگاهی و مشارکت در پروژه‌های مشترک فرا منطقه‌ای) می‌تواند امنیت انرژی دو کشور را تقویت کرده و وابستگی بازارهای آسیایی به مسیرهای سنتی تحت کنترل غرب را کاهش دهد و به رشد اقتصادی دو کشور بینجامد. روش این پژوهش ترکیبی از تحلیل محتوای کیفی اسناد (مانند اسناد دیپلماتیک یا بیانیه‌های مشترک) و تحلیل داده‌های کمی (مانند حجم مبادلات نفت و گاز)  است. همکاری دو کشور نشان می‌دهد که این شبکه‌ها نه‌تنها امکان دور زدن تحریم‌ها را فراهم می‌کنند، بلکه مسیرهای جدید انرژی را تعریف می‌کند. هرچند موفقیت این رویکرد توانایی دو کشور را در مدیریت تنش‌ها و تحریم‌ها می‌طلبد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Economic Diplomacy of Iran and China: Capacities and Barriers to Cooperation in the Field of Energy, Based on the Theory of Mutual Dependence

نویسندگان English

Majid Abbasi 1
Zeynab Bahmani Gilavandani 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction
With the world’s second-largest natural gas and fourth-largest oil reserves, Iran remains an attractive partner for energy-hungry China. Conversely, as the world’s largest oil importer, China seeks to diversify its energy sources to reduce reliance on the Strait of Malacca and mitigate geopolitical pressures from the West. This convergence of needs has fostered cooperation in projects such as the South Pars gas field development and the Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline. However, this partnership is shaped by asymmetrical interdependence: China plays a far more significant role in Iran’s foreign trade than vice versa, giving Beijing considerable bargaining power.
The main research question is: How can Iran’s economic and energy diplomacy create opportunities for bilateral cooperation that promote sustainable development and energy security in the face of Western hegemony?
The study proposes the development of transregional energy networks—including oil and gas transportation corridors, investment in refining infrastructure, and participation in multilateral energy initiatives—as potential paths forward. A mixed-methods approach combining qualitative analysis of diplomatic documents and joint statements with quantitative trade and investment data is employed.
Literature Review
In the article “China’s Energy Strategy – with an Emphasis on the Ukraine War and the Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement,” the authors effectively analyze China’s energy diplomacy as a strategic tool for energy security and regional influence. The article’s strength lies in its macro-level perspective on the geopolitical-energy nexus (Shokri Rafsanjani, Mirzaei, and Amjadi, 2013).
 
Methodology
A mixed explanatory approach was used, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses to create a descriptive-analytical framework. This method leverages both empirical data and interpretive insights to assess the strategic dynamics of Iran–China energy cooperation.
Results
Iran–China energy relations can be analyzed through the lens of interdependence theory, rooted in the work of Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye. This framework suggests that complex economic and technological links create mutual dependencies that encourage both cooperation and competition. The bilateral relationship can be assessed across three dimensions: sensitivity, vulnerability, and asymmetry of dependence.
Discussion
Over the past two decades, Iran–China energy relations have evolved from basic oil exchanges into a multifaceted strategic partnership involving economic, political, and security dimensions. Economically, the relationship now includes investment across the energy value chain. While China’s involvement in Iran’s upstream oil and gas sectors has been inconsistent—largely due to international sanctions—it signals Beijing’s long-term strategic interest.
Iran has benefited by partially offsetting its economic vulnerability through diversification. However, in the gas sector, Iran has struggled to exploit its vast reserves due to technical and financial constraints. China has shown interest in projects such as Phase 11 of South Pars and proposed pipelines to Pakistan and China, but these have largely stalled due to sanctions and Iran’s financial limitations.
Geopolitically, Iran–China energy cooperation represents a broader challenge to Western financial dominance, particularly through efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Energy corridors that connect East and West—with Iran at their center—could reshape Eurasian geopolitics.
Conclusion
Iran–China cooperation in clean energy is unfolding amidst a complex array of opportunities and challenges. Rooted in mutual needs, it has the potential to serve as a model for South–South cooperation aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Yet, risks remain, particularly related to asymmetric dependence, sanctions, and Iran’s limited infrastructure.
Iran, with significant potential for solar and wind energy in its deserts and northern regions, could become a testing ground for Chinese green technology. Realizing this vision, however, requires overcoming international sanctions, upgrading domestic infrastructure, and reducing technological dependence on China.
China, as a global leader in clean energy equipment, must foster trust through knowledge transfer and equitable partnerships. Pilot projects such as the Sirjan solar plant and the Manjil wind farm have shown promise, but expanding this cooperation requires more balanced contractual frameworks. The underperformance of the highly publicized 25-year agreement suggests a disconnect between rhetoric and implementation.
From a broader perspective, this cooperation could yield regional and global benefits. Iran’s emergence as a green hydrogen hub could enhance its regional role, while China’s involvement would bolster its leadership in clean technology. Success, however, hinges on compliance with global environmental standards and coordination with international bodies like the UN Environment Programme. Sanction relief for green energy initiatives could also encourage multilateral investment.
The long-term success of this partnership will depend on both countries’ ability to balance national interests with global obligations. Iran must enhance its domestic legal and technological capacities, while China must clarify its investment roadmap and support workforce development. The establishment of a Joint Clean Energy Working Group, involving governmental, academic, and industrial stakeholders from both sides, could serve as a monitoring body to ensure mutual gains. Despite political fluctuations, wise management of this relationship can yield lasting benefits for energy security, environmental sustainability, and regional cooperation.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Iran
China
Economic Diplomacy
Energy Security
Western Hegemony
  1. آجیلی، هادی، سلامی زواره، مهدی، و فلاحی برزکی، مهرداد. (۱۳۹۶). امنیت انرژی چین در راستای طرح «یک کمربند-یک جاده». تحقیقات سیاسی و بین‌المللی، ۹(۳۳)، ۶۳–۹۴.

    دهقانی فیروزآبادی، سید جلال، (۱۳۹۴)، اصول و مبانی روابط بین‌الملل ۱، انتشارات سمت، چاپ اول، تهران.

    شکری رفسنجانی، رضا، میرزایی، جلال، و امجدی گلناز. (۱۴۰۲). راهبرد چین در حوزه انرژی (با تأکید بر جنگ اوکراین و توافق ایران و عربستان). پژوهشنامه ایرانی روابط بین‌الملل، ۱(۲)، ۷۳–۹۲.

    صادقی، سید شمس‌الدین. (۱۳۹۴). امنیت انرژی چین و ژئواکونومیک انرژی ایران. تحقیقات سیاسی و بین‌المللی، ۷(۲۲)، ۸۵–۱۲۳

    قربانی، وحید. (۱۴۰۰). استراتژی امنیت انرژی معاصر چین در غرب آسیا. روابط خارجی، ۱۳(۳)، ۶۲۷–۶۵۸.

    نورمحمدی، مرتضی، و زارع، مهناز. (۱۳۹۷). تأثیر عامل انرژی بر روابط ترکمنستان و چین. مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، ۲۴(۱۰۱)، ۸۷–۱۱۵.

    وحیدی راد، میکاییل. (۱۳۹۲). نظریه وابستگی متقابل و کاربست آن در تاریخ معاصر ایران. خردنامه، سال چهارم، شماره ۱۰.

     

    Translated References into English 

    Ajili, Hadi, Salami Zavareh, Mehdi, Fallahi Barzaki, Mehrdad. (2017). China's Energy Security in the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative. Political and International Research, 9(33), 63–94. [In Persian]

    Dehghani Firouzabadi, Seyed Jalal, (2015), Principles and Foundations of International Relations 1, Samat Publications, First Edition, Tehran. [In Persian]

    Shokri Rafsanjani, Reza, Mirzaei, Jalal, and Amjadi Golnaz. (2013). China's Strategy in the Field of Energy (with Emphasis on the Ukraine War and the Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement). Iranian Journal of International Relations, 1(2), 73–92. [In Persian]

    Sadeghi, Seyed Shams al-Din. (2015). China's Energy Security and the Geoeconomics of Iranian Energy. Political and International Research, 7(22), 85–123. [In Persian]

    Ghorbani, Vahid. (2017). China's Contemporary Energy Security in West Asia. Foreign Relations, 13(3), 627–658. [In Persian]

    Noormohammadi, Morteza, and Zare, Mahnaz. (2018). The Impact of the Energy Factor on Turkmenistan-China Relations. Central Asian and Caucasus Studies, 24(101), 87–115. [In Persian]

     

    Vahidi-Rad, Mikael. (2013). The Theory of Interdependence and Its Application in Contemporary Iranian History. Khednameh, Year 4, Issue 10. [In Persian]

    References

    Atlantic Council. (2022). The Iran-China 25-Year Agreement: A Preliminary Assessment. 

    1. (2022). Statistical Review of World Energy 2022.

    Bloomberg. (2023). Saudi Arabia’s Energy Investments with China

    Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2023). China-Iran Relations Report

    China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). (2023). Annual Report on International Energy Cooperation.

    International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). Global Gas Security Review

    International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). Iran: Selected Economic Indicators

    Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and interdependence. Little, Brown. 

    Kpler. (2024). Monthly oil trade report: Iran-China energy partnership.

    Ministry of Energy, Iran. (2022). Annual Report on Renewable Energy Projects.

    National Iranian Oil Company. (2023). Annual Performance Report

    PV Magazine. (2022). China’s Solar Expansion in Iran

    REN21. (2023). Renewables 2023 Global Status Report. https://www.ren21.net/gsr-2023 

    Rystad Energy. (2023). Global Energy Trade Analysis.

    Reuters. (2021). China’s CNPC Takes over Total’s Stake in Iran Gas Project

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2022). World Energy Transit Chokepoints Report

    World Bank. (2021). Iran Infrastructure Development Report.