نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Problem Statement
Relations between Iran and Tajikistan are of considerable importance due to their shared cultural and historical affinities. As two countries sharing a common language and cultural heritage, Iran and Tajikistan have longstanding historical ties and enduring traditions of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation. Although relations between Iran and Tajikistan have received attention under successive Iranian governments since the Islamic Revolution, they have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly during the period from 2001 to 2024. While shared cultural ties, most notably the Persian language, contributed to closer relations during the first decade of this period, security-related disagreements and political mistrust between the two sides intensified from the mid-2010s onward. Between 2015 and 2020, bilateral relations cooled to an unprecedented level, a shift that was largely driven by mutual misunderstandings and regional factors. This situation necessitates an examination of bilateral relations within an appropriate theoretical framework. Accordingly, the central problem of this research is to analyze Iran–Tajikistan relations during the 2001–2024 period based on the variables identified in James Rosenau’s linkage theory.
Literature Review
Numerous articles and books have examined Iran–Tajikistan relations, each addressing particular dimensions of the relationship. In their article, “Iran’s Troubled Relations with Afghanistan and Tajikistan: The Dilemma of Compound Alignment” (2023), Lawson and Legrenzi argue that Iran’s policy toward the Taliban government in Afghanistan affects its relations with Tajikistan. This is because Tajikistan faces a serious security challenge along its border with Afghanistan and seeks Iranian intervention to address this challenge. However, the article focuses exclusively on a single regional variable—the role of Afghanistan—in Iran–Tajikistan relations and does not examine other relevant factors.
Momeni et al. (2022), in their article “Analysis and Examination of the Causes of Convergence between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Tajikistan,” argue that factors such as economic relations, investment, linguistic, cultural, and ethnic ties, as well as religious and historical bonds, provide a suitable foundation for convergence between the two countries. However, the study does not address decision-making-level variables, including the role of individuals or the international system.
Rahimi and Simbar (2021), in their article “Political Components Influencing Iran–Tajikistan Relations (2010–2020): Contexts for the Transition from Divergence to Stable Convergence,” conclude that revitalizing political components through foreign-policy instruments in the economic, cultural, and political spheres, alongside the development of a politico-security framework for resolving the issue of the Islamic Renaissance Party, can facilitate a transition from divergence toward stable convergence. However, this study focuses primarily on the reasons underlying divergence in relations between the two countries and does not comprehensively examine the contributing variables or other levels of analysis.
Zargar and Rafiei Dolatabadi (2020), in their book Iran and Political Stability in Tajikistan After the Soviet Collapse, first examine the political situation in Central Asia and Tajikistan both before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union and then analyze Iran’s national interests concerning the establishment of stability in Tajikistan. The scope of their research differs from that of the present article, which seeks to analyze the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Salavarzi-Zadeh et al. (2020), in their article “A Futures-Oriented Pathology of Iran’s Foreign Policy in Tajikistan,” argue that Iran’s foreign-policy strategy toward Tajikistan has been unsuccessful due to domestic weaknesses and environmental challenges, particularly the absence of long-term, futures-oriented goal setting.
Overall, previous studies have largely focused on individual variables or specific dimensions of the relationship. While earlier research has examined Iran–Tajikistan relations through the lens of isolated domestic or environmental variables, the present article adopts a broader approach by analyzing the bilateral relationship over a two-decade period, while taking into account decision-making-level variables as well as the role of regional and international factors.
Objective
The primary objective of this study is to analyze bilateral relations between Iran and Tajikistan during the period from 2001 to 2024.
Research Methodology
This study employs a descriptive-analytical method and examines Iran–Tajikistan relations within the framework of James Rosenau’s linkage theory of foreign-policy analysis.
Research Findings
Relations between Iran and Tajikistan are shaped, on the one hand, by domestic variables and decision-making dynamics and, on the other, by evolving regional and international conditions. In recent years, these factors have contributed to significant fluctuations in bilateral relations. A comprehensive analysis reveals that the relationship has been influenced by individual, role-based, political, social, and international variables. At the individual level, relations with Tajikistan have consistently been emphasized by Iran’s foreign-policy elites, including Ayatollah Khamenei and successive presidents. Similarly, Emomali Rahmon, the principal decision-maker in Tajikistan’s foreign policy, has consistently emphasized the importance of relations between Dushanbe and Tehran. Furthermore, as these political leaders have operated within their respective roles, political, cultural, and economic relations between the two countries have generally moved toward expansion, with the notable exception of the 2014–2019 period. This trajectory has been pursued through varying emphases on economic relations, cultural expansion, the strategic importance of Central Asia, Western-oriented foreign policy, and a “neighborhood-first” policy. From the perspective of governmental structures, institutions such as the executive branch, particularly the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament) have played influential roles within their respective executive and legislative frameworks over the past two decades. In contrast, Tajikistan’s political system is structured in such a way that other institutions, such as parliament and political parties, possess limited executive authority and are unable to exert significant influence on the country’s foreign policy. Meanwhile, Islamic identity and support for Islamic groups—factors that have strongly influenced Iran’s foreign policy—proved to be decisive variables in bilateral relations, particularly during the 2013–2019 period. This was evident in Iran’s support for the Islamic Renaissance Party and the attendance of its leader at the 2016 Islamic Unity Conference in Tehran. This occurred even though, unlike Iran, the government of Tajikistan is secular and its policies are primarily driven by national interests as well as economic and technical cooperation rather than religious considerations.
Social factors, including shared history, culture, and language, have consistently been among the principal drivers of close relations between the two countries. Shared social and cultural traditions, such as Nowruz, have served as an important incentive for maintaining and strengthening bilateral relations. At the regional and international levels, actors such as Russia, the United States, the Zionist regime, and Saudi Arabia have exerted significant influence on Iran–Tajikistan relations. Although Russia remains Tajikistan’s most important foreign partner, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow have increased the economic and security importance of Iran for Tajikistan.
Meanwhile, the United States, which maintains a presence in Central Asia in an effort to counterbalance Russia and China, opposes the expansion of relations between Iran and Tajikistan. Saudi Arabia is another important actor whose foreign-policy actions have been interpreted as exerting pressure on Tajikistan to reduce its relations with Iran. This trend was particularly evident following the tensions between Tehran and Dushanbe during the 2014–2019 period, which also coincided with increased Saudi investment in various sectors of Tajikistan.
Finally, Israel is regarded by Iran as an existential adversary in West Asia. Beyond consistently seeking to exploit Tajikistan’s economic and political vulnerabilities to its own advantage, the Israeli government seeks to limit Iranian influence across regions extending from West Asia to Central Asia.
Conclusion
Successive Iranian governments have emphasized the historical, cultural, and ethnic commonalities shared by the two nations, and bilateral relations have been grounded in these factors. At the same time, the relationship has been shaped by domestic variables and decision-making processes, while also being influenced by the evolving regional and international environment. Within this context, Iran–Tajikistan relations have experienced significant fluctuations in recent periods, driven by a combination of individual, role-based, political, social, and international variables. The analysis demonstrates that understanding the trajectory of bilateral relations requires consideration of the interaction among these different levels and variables rather than focusing exclusively on a single determinant.
کلیدواژهها English
