نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction
Since the Narendra Modi-led government came to power in 2014, West Asia—viewed as India’s “extended neighborhood”—has gained strategic importance in New Delhi's quest to become an emerging international power. Unlike previous administrations, the Modi government has acted with unprecedented decisiveness in boosting political-diplomatic, economic, and security relations with Israel, moving beyond clandestine ties to an openly declared strategic partnership. This study seeks to explain this significant shift in Indian diplomacy. The central research question asks: why has Indian diplomacy towards Israel evolved from hidden connections to a transparent, strategic partnership during Narendra Modi’s premiership? The hypothesis posits that this transformation is primarily due to a change in Indian leaders' perception of international and regional threats and opportunities, particularly under Modi’s leadership. To test this, the study employs the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, which uniquely bridges international systemic pressures and domestic intervening variables.
Literature Review
Existing scholarship on India-Israel relations, while valuable, exhibits several gaps. Works by Chinoy & Pradhan (2024) and Pant & Alhasan (2024) offer descriptive accounts of India’s West Asia policy but lack a deep theoretical explanation for the shift towards Israel. Authors like Blarel (2022) and Rajiv (2023) focus either narrowly on Modi’s personality or provide strategic recommendations without a causal analysis. Other studies, such as those by Inbar (2017) and Essa (2022), emphasize historical identity factors or ideological convergence between Hindu nationalism and Zionism, offering single-factor explanations. Kumaraswamy (2017) describes cooperative dimensions like agriculture but does not explain the underlying drivers of change. While Blarel (2017) highlights the role of non-state actors, no comprehensive, theory-driven research has systematically integrated both international structural pressures (e.g., the rise of China) and domestic factors (e.g., leadership beliefs, strategic culture, bureaucratic changes) to explain the transformation of India’s Israel policy under Modi. This study aims to fill this lacuna by applying neoclassical realism as a rigorous analytical framework.
Methodology
This research adopts a qualitative, theory-testing case study design. The deductive-hypothetical strategy derives the hypothesis from neoclassical realism. Data collection is based on documentary research, including primary sources (government statements, bilateral agreements) and secondary sources (academic articles, reports). The process-tracing technique, specifically the theory-testing variant, is employed as the primary analytical tool. Process tracing allows the study to identify the causal mechanism linking systemic pressures (independent variable) to the foreign policy outcome (dependent variable: strategic partnership with Israel) by examining domestic intervening variables. Following the “completeness standard” proposed by David Waldner, the analysis constructs a chronological causal chain (X → M1 → M2 → Y) to demonstrate causal sufficiency. The study specifically draws on the third variant of neoclassical realism, which emphasises four domestic intervening variables: leaders' images/perceptions, strategic culture, domestic institutions (bureaucracy and ruling party), and state-society relations (media, think tanks, interest groups).
Results
The findings confirm the hypothesis. The primary structural pressure driving India’s policy shift is the emergence of China as an international power pole. This systemic variable, however, is filtered through a compound causal mechanism comprising several domestic factors that facilitated the strategic partnership: (1) Leaders' Perceptions: Narendra Modi’s pragmatism, deal-making mentality, and personal friendship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including his use of “hugplomacy,” were crucial. (2) Strategic Culture: India’s strategic culture has redefined from Nehruvian idealism and economic pragmatism to a dominant “Hindu realist” approach under the BJP, which sees Israel as a natural partner. (3) Domestic Institutions: A change in bureaucratic mindset, particularly within the Ministry of External Affairs, moved away from a secular, balanced posture towards a pro-Israel orientation, exemplified by appointing Sushma Swaraj—a vocal supporter of Israel—as External Affairs Minister. The hegemonic BJP, unconstrained by Muslim vote-bank politics like the Congress party, actively pursued ties. (4) State-Society Relations: Media, think tanks (e.g., IDSA), and interest groups mobilized public and elite opinion, framing terrorism in a pro-Israel light and engaging in Track-II diplomacy. The process-tracing causal chain (Table 3 in the original) shows key events from China’s rise (2010) and the Arab uprisings (2011) to Modi’s 2017 visit to Israel, the 2021 I2U2 (West Asian Quad) formation, and the 2023 India-Middle East-Europe Corridor announcement. This chain reveals a compound mechanism where leaders’ perceptions act as a necessary condition, combining with other sufficient domestic conditions to produce the strategic partnership. Quantitatively, since 2014, 42.1% of Israel’s arms exports went to India, and bilateral trade (excluding military equipment) reached ~$10.77 billion (2022-23), up from $200 million in 1992.
Discussion
The strategic partnership is not merely a response to structural pressures or domestic factors alone but the product of their complex interaction. India’s shift towards Israel represents a multi-level balancing strategy against the rise of China. Externally, it serves as indirect balancing in the Indo-Pacific (using Israel as a gateway to the US and countering China’s “string of pearls” strategy) and institutional balancing through minilateral frameworks like the I2U2 in West Asia. Both nations also form a coalition against militant threats, framing their conflicts in Kashmir and the occupied territories as counter-terrorism. Internally, the partnership enhances India’s defence capabilities (internal balancing) through joint ventures (e.g., Adani-Elbit drones, Barak-8 missiles), contributing to India’s self-reliance (Aatmanirbhar Bharat) and strengthening the economy via technology transfer in agriculture, water management, and cybersecurity. The study concludes that Modi’s foreign policy towards Israel is best explained by neoclassical realism, demonstrating how systemic stimuli are translated into foreign policy outcomes through domestic filters. This research moves beyond descriptive or single-factor accounts, providing a comprehensive theoretical and empirical explanation. Future research should independently examine the impact of India’s domestic power distribution, Modi’s leadership style, and state-society relations on broader Indian diplomacy.
کلیدواژهها English
