Introduction
Iran has been subjected to numerous and diverse sanctions in recent years, aiming to reduce its level of international trade. On the other hand, France has a historical record of trade relations with Iran and has consistently been considered one of its partners. The trade relationship between Iran and France dates back centuries, to the 17th and 18th centuries during the Safaviye era. At that time, France was recognized as a key trading destination for Iran and a gateway for commerce with Europe.
During the Qajar period, particularly under Fath Ali Shah, efforts were made to strengthen relations with France. Napoleon Bonaparte sought an alliance with Iran to counter the Russian and British empires. However, due to political shifts and agreements between France and other powers, these collaborations did not achieve their intended outcomes.
In the 20th century, both during the Pahlavi dynasty and after the Islamic Revolution, France remained one of Iran's key partners. Given the economic capacities of both countries, especially in various sectors, numerous opportunities for collaboration have existed. However, the current level of trade between the two nations has significantly declined, reaching its lowest point in history.
Research Objective
The present study aims to examine the trends in trade relations between France and Iran, focusing on the following research question:

What has been the trend of Iran-France trade relations, and how have sanctions affected it?

To answer this question, the study hypothesizes that sanctions have caused a decline in the upward trend of France-Iran trade relations.
Methodology
This study adopts a quantitative research approach. Time series techniques have been employed to analyze the trends in trade relations between Iran and France, while the impact of sanctions on these trade relations has been evaluated using the difference-in-means statistic.
Time series data consist of observations ordered chronologically, derived from long-term monitoring of a phenomenon. Analyzing time series can be considered a form of longitudinal study, which helps researchers understand natural processes and patterns of change over time.
The difference-in-means test is used to assess the impact of sanctions by comparing the mean values of trade during different periods. This test determines whether the observed mean values across groups are significantly different from one another. Only if the means are distinct across groups is the presence of a difference confirmed.
Findings
While France has historically been one of Iran's major trading partners during most of the observed time series, accounting for at least 4% of Iran's imports and exports until 2006, subsequent developments have led to a decline in France's share of trade with Iran. By the end of the time series, France's share had reached a minimum.
Comparing the positions of the two countries based on the time series:

Iran has not been a significant trading partner for France throughout the time series and has experienced a decline in trade. However, the volume of France's trade with Iran has witnessed a relatively smaller decrease.
In contrast, France held a favorable position in Iran's trade before the initial sanctions. However, following the imposition of sanctions, France's trade with Iran experienced a consistent decline, approaching its lowest levels by the end of the time series. Consequently, France's negative trade balance with Iran has sharply increased, and it has been excluded from the group of Iran's main trading partners.

These findings suggest that the imposition of sanctions has profoundly affected the trade dynamics between Iran and France, with a more significant impact observed on France's role as a trading partner of Iran.
Results
The findings indicate that sanctions have specifically impacted France's exports to Iran in the later period, particularly after 2018. Although the level of trade declined during the "maximum pressure" phase, the export values did not show a statistically significant difference compared to non-sanctioned periods (pre-sanction and JCPOA eras). Additionally, the initial sanction period was identified as the best phase in terms of export value, attributed to certain sanction exemptions. Once these exemptions were lifted during the maximum pressure phase, export values drastically decreased, showing a reduction of approximately 70% compared to the initial sanction period. Thus, sanctions from 2018 onward have had a direct and pronounced impact on France's exports to Iran.
Similarly, the findings reveal that sanctions imposed during the "maximum pressure" phase and subsequent re-sanctions significantly affected France's imports from Iran. However, the initial sanction period stood out as the most favorable in terms of import value, again due to specific exemptions. Following the removal of these exemptions, the value of imports during the maximum pressure phase sharply declined. A comparison between the two sanction phases shows a 95% reduction in import values during the maximum pressure period. Consequently, sanctions have had a direct and profound impact on France's imports from Iran in both examined phases.
Conclusion
The analysis of trade trends between France and Iran indicates that, while trade relations were not significantly affected during the initial sanction period, the periods of "maximum pressure" and subsequent re-sanctions have considerably impacted bilateral trade. Despite France's historical ties with Iran and its occasional diplomatic efforts to address Iran's challenges, sanctions have undeniably influenced trade relations between the two countries.
The United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and the re-imposition of sanctions created a challenging environment for France-Iran trade. Post-2018, violating sanctions against Iran has been met with stringent U.S. measures, increasing the political risk associated with trading with Iran. This led many French companies to reassess or terminate their agreements with Iran. For instance, Total abandoned its plans to develop the South Pars gas field, a potentially lucrative project for both parties, due to fears of U.S. sanctions. Such developments have significantly constrained France's ability to capitalize on its economic interests in Iran.
Comparisons between the periods of re-sanctions and maximum pressure reveal steep declines in trade: export values decreased by over 54%, while import values dropped by over 72%.
It is important to note that France continues to recognize the JCPOA as a viable solution to the Iranian issue and considers its revival a key tool for resolving existing disputes. France seeks to restore diplomatic engagement with Iran to revitalize economic relations. France's considerations for maintaining the JCPOA or forging agreements with Iran go beyond historical and geopolitical ties, as they promise substantial economic benefits. This underlines France's potential capability and willingness to leverage diplomatic interactions to resolve the Iranian issue.